How to tip for Round 9
May 23rd 2008 04:50
Collingwood v Geelong
Collingwood have repeatedly disappointed me this year - not least because I tipped the Saints last week. Geelong, on the other hand, have no idea how to lose a football match. Do not discount a Magpie win - they tend to rise to the occasion - and Geelong have to lose at some point, but it doesn't look like it'll be this week.
Geelong by 17 points
Carlton v Fremantle
Another team that simply refuses to win is Fremantle. Apart from a good showing against the Hawks, the Dockers have conceded big leads to Geelong (understandable) and Melbourne (inexcusable). Carlton only keep going up, and have the post-season in their grasp if they really want it. This game will show how much they do.
Carlton by 23 points
Port Adelaide v Sydney
Port have big inclusions this week, while the Swans lose the ever-important Tadhg Kennelly. But games to not come down to individual stars. Sydney continually prove themselves a worthy outfit and Port have faded drastically against West Coast, Brisbane and Hawthorn. Failure to play out four solid quarters is fatal.
Sydney by 30 points
Essendon v Richmond
Richmond is a team that impresses, but near enough is good enough for them. They have seriously pushed Hawthorn, drawn with the Bulldogs and momentarily looked like knocking off the Cats - the big three. The Bombers on the other hand have slumped to wooden spoon favourites and their last three games have been the reason. Never before in AFL history has a team lost three consecutive games by 60 or more points. Continually making five or six changes means they will never have any consistency.
Richmond by 17 points
West Coast v Adelaide
West Coast really do appear in future-thinking mode. That they blood two youngsters this week is only part of the story. Adelaide, on the other hand, are playing positive, attacking football and Brett Burton appears back to his bounding best since time out with injury. Subiaco no longer has the House of Pain factor.
Adelaide by 31 points
Brisbane Lions v St Kilda
St Kilda should be playing better for the list they have, but they have young, positive inclusions (Geary, McQualter) as well as Nick Riewoldt coming in. Brisbane, fresh off a comfortable win over the Blues, are in form and Simon Black is in genuine Brownlow contention. Expect this game to be won by the better coach.
Brisbane Lions by 20 points
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Hawthorn are very good. Melbourne are not. Hawthorn are not showing the Demons respect, bringing in Josh Kennedy, Brent Renouf, Mitch Thorp and Jarryd Morton, with a combined total of fewer than ten games. It won't be as prolific as the last time they met, but the Hawks won't be troubled.
Hawthorn by 44 points
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Unlike St Kilda, North Melbourne continue to outplay the list they have. They will need to dig deep into the Shinboner spirit to beat the red-hot Dogs, but it is not beyond them. The Bulldogs will win if they capitalise on their speed and goalkicking midfielders. How they manage to continually produce upwards of eight or ten goalkickers per game is beyond me.
Western Bulldogs by 11 points
Collingwood have repeatedly disappointed me this year - not least because I tipped the Saints last week. Geelong, on the other hand, have no idea how to lose a football match. Do not discount a Magpie win - they tend to rise to the occasion - and Geelong have to lose at some point, but it doesn't look like it'll be this week.
Geelong by 17 points
Carlton v Fremantle
Another team that simply refuses to win is Fremantle. Apart from a good showing against the Hawks, the Dockers have conceded big leads to Geelong (understandable) and Melbourne (inexcusable). Carlton only keep going up, and have the post-season in their grasp if they really want it. This game will show how much they do.
Port Adelaide v Sydney
Port have big inclusions this week, while the Swans lose the ever-important Tadhg Kennelly. But games to not come down to individual stars. Sydney continually prove themselves a worthy outfit and Port have faded drastically against West Coast, Brisbane and Hawthorn. Failure to play out four solid quarters is fatal.
Sydney by 30 points
Essendon v Richmond
Richmond is a team that impresses, but near enough is good enough for them. They have seriously pushed Hawthorn, drawn with the Bulldogs and momentarily looked like knocking off the Cats - the big three. The Bombers on the other hand have slumped to wooden spoon favourites and their last three games have been the reason. Never before in AFL history has a team lost three consecutive games by 60 or more points. Continually making five or six changes means they will never have any consistency.
Richmond by 17 points
West Coast v Adelaide
West Coast really do appear in future-thinking mode. That they blood two youngsters this week is only part of the story. Adelaide, on the other hand, are playing positive, attacking football and Brett Burton appears back to his bounding best since time out with injury. Subiaco no longer has the House of Pain factor.
Brisbane Lions v St Kilda
St Kilda should be playing better for the list they have, but they have young, positive inclusions (Geary, McQualter) as well as Nick Riewoldt coming in. Brisbane, fresh off a comfortable win over the Blues, are in form and Simon Black is in genuine Brownlow contention. Expect this game to be won by the better coach.
Brisbane Lions by 20 points
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Hawthorn are very good. Melbourne are not. Hawthorn are not showing the Demons respect, bringing in Josh Kennedy, Brent Renouf, Mitch Thorp and Jarryd Morton, with a combined total of fewer than ten games. It won't be as prolific as the last time they met, but the Hawks won't be troubled.
Hawthorn by 44 points
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Unlike St Kilda, North Melbourne continue to outplay the list they have. They will need to dig deep into the Shinboner spirit to beat the red-hot Dogs, but it is not beyond them. The Bulldogs will win if they capitalise on their speed and goalkicking midfielders. How they manage to continually produce upwards of eight or ten goalkickers per game is beyond me.
Western Bulldogs by 11 points
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