How to tip for Round 21
August 21st 2008 09:21
Western Bulldogs v Essendon at Telstra Dome
With the Bombers out of the finals race, it's not too surprising to see them ring in the changes. Fletcher, Jetta, Laycock, Hille and Dempsey all sit this game out injured, to be replaced by some uncharted names like Bellchambers, Hocking and debutant Cale Hooker. The Bulldogs played well below their par against the Lions last week, but with a first final against the Hawks all sewn up, they can be excused for having little to play for. Nonetheless, this is the first deep breath the Dons will take after a bruising season and we may see them make more tired mistakes than a side preparing to play for a few more weeks yet.
Western Bulldogs by 34 points
Richmond v Fremantle at the MCG
The Tigers showed last week that they are prepared to fight this season out till the final siren of Round 22. With their finals hopes resting on a win, the Dockers with no places to gain and already at the pivotal 5-win threshold, and the game being played away from Perth, all signs point to a Tiger win. Expect Pavlich to have to win most of his possessions close to centre wing.
Richmond by 24 points
Port Adelaide v Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
The game neither team wants to win. Should the Power get up, they rise above any hope of a priority pick next year. Should the Dees win and the Eagles get flogged by the Hawks, they may lose 16th spot and the subsequent first draft pick. Enquire into match-fixing if the game is drawn! Both teams make four changes with a range of experience and youth being brought in. Port again did the obligatory three-quarter performance last week, further convincing me that they are committing the big tank. The Demons to win, but Port will be up at the last change.
Melbourne by 9 points
Brisbane Lions v Carlton at the Gabba
Both teams need to win to keep their finals dreams alive, but Brisbane have a greater weight of expectation, were much better last week and have the home ground edge. Their two-pronged attack will be too much for the Blues' defence. Pray that the Fev kicks a bag, so that if Franklin doesn't reach 100 goals, they will fight it out at opposite ends next round!
Brisbane Lions by 23 points
Collingwood v Sydney Swans at Telstra Dome
The Pies have answered critics in the last two weeks with two solid wins. The Swans were less than convincing against Freo and were helpless against the Cats in the last fortnight. This game marks their push to reclaim fourth spot, but the Pies will want a win to seal their September deal once and for all. The Pies lose Thomas to a calf injury, while the Swans have dropped key names in Ablett and Malceski, who make way for youngsters like Jack and Veszpremi in their biggest test to date. If they can rise to the occasion, they will lift the rest of the team with them. I think the Pies have more to play for, but the Swans will want to show that the Pies don't have the wood over them too much. Flip a coin for your tip, this will be a cracker!
Sydney by 1 point
Geelong v North Melbourne at Skilled Stadium
If the Village People had have followed AFL, their hit might well have been titled 'You Can't Stop Geelong'. It's more or less a fact. North have the heart, but the Cats have flat out talent. tactical prowess and unity that is unmatchable. Their effortless disposal of genuine title contenders Sydney last week pretty much sealed them as unbackable favourites for the flag. Whether or not that means they win this particular match is irrelevant - North may well stage an upset - but if you need to catch up tips, try a different underdog!
Geelong by 40 points
St Kilda v Adelaide at Telstra Dome
Both teams have pretty solid defences, and both have been having trouble in front of goal of late. Both have yet to drop anyone on the back of big wins last week. The wildcard here is St Kilda - we will not know whether they turn up as Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde until well into the match. If the Crows can pressure them enough, the errors will come and the Saints will falter. But St Kilda need this win a lot more than the Crows if their lofty expectations are to be fulfilled. They play the Dome very well, and if they get on top early they should take the points.
St Kilda by 16 points
West Coast v Hawthorn at Subiaco
The Hawks will need to lose the sense of occasion that cost them dearly last week. They failed to pay proper respect to the Tigers by seemingly playing to accelerate Franklin's goal tally, and Richmond walked all over them. The Eagles could do the same if the Hawks don't come to play. But the West Coast managed just five goals against Melbourne last week and probably don't have the firepower up front to kick a winning score. The home ground and crowd advantage may help their cause, but only by reducing the losing margin. If Melbourne beat Port on Saturday, put your house on the Hawks - by a lot.
Hawthorn by 22 points (or 75 if Melbourne wins)
With the Bombers out of the finals race, it's not too surprising to see them ring in the changes. Fletcher, Jetta, Laycock, Hille and Dempsey all sit this game out injured, to be replaced by some uncharted names like Bellchambers, Hocking and debutant Cale Hooker. The Bulldogs played well below their par against the Lions last week, but with a first final against the Hawks all sewn up, they can be excused for having little to play for. Nonetheless, this is the first deep breath the Dons will take after a bruising season and we may see them make more tired mistakes than a side preparing to play for a few more weeks yet.
Western Bulldogs by 34 points
Richmond v Fremantle at the MCG
The Tigers showed last week that they are prepared to fight this season out till the final siren of Round 22. With their finals hopes resting on a win, the Dockers with no places to gain and already at the pivotal 5-win threshold, and the game being played away from Perth, all signs point to a Tiger win. Expect Pavlich to have to win most of his possessions close to centre wing.
Richmond by 24 points
Port Adelaide v Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
The game neither team wants to win. Should the Power get up, they rise above any hope of a priority pick next year. Should the Dees win and the Eagles get flogged by the Hawks, they may lose 16th spot and the subsequent first draft pick. Enquire into match-fixing if the game is drawn! Both teams make four changes with a range of experience and youth being brought in. Port again did the obligatory three-quarter performance last week, further convincing me that they are committing the big tank. The Demons to win, but Port will be up at the last change.
Melbourne by 9 points
Brisbane Lions v Carlton at the Gabba
Both teams need to win to keep their finals dreams alive, but Brisbane have a greater weight of expectation, were much better last week and have the home ground edge. Their two-pronged attack will be too much for the Blues' defence. Pray that the Fev kicks a bag, so that if Franklin doesn't reach 100 goals, they will fight it out at opposite ends next round!
Brisbane Lions by 23 points
Collingwood v Sydney Swans at Telstra Dome
The Pies have answered critics in the last two weeks with two solid wins. The Swans were less than convincing against Freo and were helpless against the Cats in the last fortnight. This game marks their push to reclaim fourth spot, but the Pies will want a win to seal their September deal once and for all. The Pies lose Thomas to a calf injury, while the Swans have dropped key names in Ablett and Malceski, who make way for youngsters like Jack and Veszpremi in their biggest test to date. If they can rise to the occasion, they will lift the rest of the team with them. I think the Pies have more to play for, but the Swans will want to show that the Pies don't have the wood over them too much. Flip a coin for your tip, this will be a cracker!
Sydney by 1 point
Geelong v North Melbourne at Skilled Stadium
If the Village People had have followed AFL, their hit might well have been titled 'You Can't Stop Geelong'. It's more or less a fact. North have the heart, but the Cats have flat out talent. tactical prowess and unity that is unmatchable. Their effortless disposal of genuine title contenders Sydney last week pretty much sealed them as unbackable favourites for the flag. Whether or not that means they win this particular match is irrelevant - North may well stage an upset - but if you need to catch up tips, try a different underdog!
Geelong by 40 points
St Kilda v Adelaide at Telstra Dome
Both teams have pretty solid defences, and both have been having trouble in front of goal of late. Both have yet to drop anyone on the back of big wins last week. The wildcard here is St Kilda - we will not know whether they turn up as Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde until well into the match. If the Crows can pressure them enough, the errors will come and the Saints will falter. But St Kilda need this win a lot more than the Crows if their lofty expectations are to be fulfilled. They play the Dome very well, and if they get on top early they should take the points.
St Kilda by 16 points
West Coast v Hawthorn at Subiaco
The Hawks will need to lose the sense of occasion that cost them dearly last week. They failed to pay proper respect to the Tigers by seemingly playing to accelerate Franklin's goal tally, and Richmond walked all over them. The Eagles could do the same if the Hawks don't come to play. But the West Coast managed just five goals against Melbourne last week and probably don't have the firepower up front to kick a winning score. The home ground and crowd advantage may help their cause, but only by reducing the losing margin. If Melbourne beat Port on Saturday, put your house on the Hawks - by a lot.
Hawthorn by 22 points (or 75 if Melbourne wins)
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