How to tip for Round 19
August 8th 2008 08:28
Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG
There's something about the top team taking on the bottom team that breeds wild theories as to how the upset of the century will come about. Rarely, however, are two teams so genuinely deserving of their respective places. The Cats are one of the best units that we've seen for a while. The Dees have been appalling all year. The best they can hope for this week is to learn a bit about how to play for each other and use every member of the list.
Geelong by 65 points
Carlton v Port Adelaide at Telstra Dome
Carlton gave the Crows a scare last week with a late charge that fell just short, but caused much anxiety among the home fans. A loss here would seriously dent any chance the Blues have of an unlikely finals spot. The Power have much less to play for. Last week they displayed the first signs of the tank - leading at three-quarter time to please the fans but snatching a late defeat. If the Power are up at the last break, put all your cash on the Blues.
Carlton by 17 points
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Brisbane have much to play for, having dropped out the top eight at a crucial stage. Earlier losses to Melbourne (16th) and West Coast (15th) will have them kicking themselves. The Hawks are pretty much guaranteed to play the Bulldogs in the first week of the finals, but form at this stage of the season is important enough to fire the Hawks up. They are just starting to convince again after a disappointing spell, and will look to use this opportunity to let the competition know they are still a force. In case they needed further inspiration, Crawford will play his 300th game.
Hawthorn by 30 points
Collingwood v St Kilda at the MCG
Expect the Pies to win the second quarter - they have won 16 of 18 this year! In the other three, however, give the Saints a look. With 4-1 from their last five games (the Pies are 2-3), they are starting to present the top four contender that was expected of them. Riewoldt is in ridiculous form and the midfield is clicking. The Pies have big omissions, in particular Shaw and Didak in dramatic fashion, and blood two youngsters in Chris Dawes and John McCarthy. The Pies generally have good fortune when it comes to their first gamers, and often lift when their backs are against the wall. But the Saints have a lot to prove, and this is a good chance for them to attack that fourth spot.
St Kilda by 3 points
Sydney v Fremantle at the SCG
Freo were explosive for a quarter last week, popping nine goals through before quarter time. From there, the standard dropped and against opposition better than the Eagles they may have been challenged. Sydney will be a tough assignment. They don't like losing at the SCG and need too find some form coming into the finals. With their top four spot under serious threat, they will rise to a level that the Dockers just can't match. The inclusion of Goodes and Barry can only help their cause.
Sydney by 21 points
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
Last time we saw one of the games of the year, with the result undecided even after the final siren. This time around we should see a similarly tight contest. These are two teams of titanic spirit, both on a quest for finals form. The Kangaroos welcome back Thompson and Simpson, and the Dogs have had two of their three losses in the last five weeks. The Dogs are probably the better team, and have a more realistic premiership chance, but this is a game that the Kangaroos love to snatch. Genuinely, either team could get up.
Western Bulldogs by 4 points
Adelaide v Richmond at AAMI Stadium
The Crows are still in the hunt to reclaim their top four spot, despite crashing out of the eight in the last fortnight. They were solid against the Blues last week, with Van Berlo playing out of his skin. The Tigers are closer to finals footy than they have been for a long while, but the trip to AAMI Stadium is never an easy ride and the pressure of the must-win situation may be compounded by the hostile crowd. The Crows lose Porplyzia, but regain Johncock to bolster their defensive six. The inclusion of Brown will help the Tigers, but not enough. The Crows will get up for superstar McLeod, who plays his 300th game.
Adelaide by 25 points
West Coast Eagles v Essendon at Subiaco
West Coast have been incredibly unpredictable recently, knocking off finals-bound St Kilda, before being horridly unskillful against the Dockers last week. This, their third straight game at Subiaco, could be tough for them. The loss of Staker and recent Rising Star nominee Ebert will test their depth. The Bombers have been in good form recently (4-1 from the past five), with their knew gameplan just starting to gel on the young list. They lose Reimers, who has been very impressive in recent months. But players like Hille, Stanton and Watson have been team-lifting of late. The Dons can't fall on the ladder for at least three weeks, so will be able to take some risks. Expect red and black jackets to be waving at the end.
Essendon by 15 points
There's something about the top team taking on the bottom team that breeds wild theories as to how the upset of the century will come about. Rarely, however, are two teams so genuinely deserving of their respective places. The Cats are one of the best units that we've seen for a while. The Dees have been appalling all year. The best they can hope for this week is to learn a bit about how to play for each other and use every member of the list.
Geelong by 65 points
Carlton v Port Adelaide at Telstra Dome
Carlton gave the Crows a scare last week with a late charge that fell just short, but caused much anxiety among the home fans. A loss here would seriously dent any chance the Blues have of an unlikely finals spot. The Power have much less to play for. Last week they displayed the first signs of the tank - leading at three-quarter time to please the fans but snatching a late defeat. If the Power are up at the last break, put all your cash on the Blues.
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Brisbane have much to play for, having dropped out the top eight at a crucial stage. Earlier losses to Melbourne (16th) and West Coast (15th) will have them kicking themselves. The Hawks are pretty much guaranteed to play the Bulldogs in the first week of the finals, but form at this stage of the season is important enough to fire the Hawks up. They are just starting to convince again after a disappointing spell, and will look to use this opportunity to let the competition know they are still a force. In case they needed further inspiration, Crawford will play his 300th game.
Hawthorn by 30 points
Collingwood v St Kilda at the MCG
Expect the Pies to win the second quarter - they have won 16 of 18 this year! In the other three, however, give the Saints a look. With 4-1 from their last five games (the Pies are 2-3), they are starting to present the top four contender that was expected of them. Riewoldt is in ridiculous form and the midfield is clicking. The Pies have big omissions, in particular Shaw and Didak in dramatic fashion, and blood two youngsters in Chris Dawes and John McCarthy. The Pies generally have good fortune when it comes to their first gamers, and often lift when their backs are against the wall. But the Saints have a lot to prove, and this is a good chance for them to attack that fourth spot.
St Kilda by 3 points
Sydney v Fremantle at the SCG
Freo were explosive for a quarter last week, popping nine goals through before quarter time. From there, the standard dropped and against opposition better than the Eagles they may have been challenged. Sydney will be a tough assignment. They don't like losing at the SCG and need too find some form coming into the finals. With their top four spot under serious threat, they will rise to a level that the Dockers just can't match. The inclusion of Goodes and Barry can only help their cause.
Sydney by 21 points
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
Last time we saw one of the games of the year, with the result undecided even after the final siren. This time around we should see a similarly tight contest. These are two teams of titanic spirit, both on a quest for finals form. The Kangaroos welcome back Thompson and Simpson, and the Dogs have had two of their three losses in the last five weeks. The Dogs are probably the better team, and have a more realistic premiership chance, but this is a game that the Kangaroos love to snatch. Genuinely, either team could get up.
Western Bulldogs by 4 points
Adelaide v Richmond at AAMI Stadium
The Crows are still in the hunt to reclaim their top four spot, despite crashing out of the eight in the last fortnight. They were solid against the Blues last week, with Van Berlo playing out of his skin. The Tigers are closer to finals footy than they have been for a long while, but the trip to AAMI Stadium is never an easy ride and the pressure of the must-win situation may be compounded by the hostile crowd. The Crows lose Porplyzia, but regain Johncock to bolster their defensive six. The inclusion of Brown will help the Tigers, but not enough. The Crows will get up for superstar McLeod, who plays his 300th game.
Adelaide by 25 points
West Coast Eagles v Essendon at Subiaco
West Coast have been incredibly unpredictable recently, knocking off finals-bound St Kilda, before being horridly unskillful against the Dockers last week. This, their third straight game at Subiaco, could be tough for them. The loss of Staker and recent Rising Star nominee Ebert will test their depth. The Bombers have been in good form recently (4-1 from the past five), with their knew gameplan just starting to gel on the young list. They lose Reimers, who has been very impressive in recent months. But players like Hille, Stanton and Watson have been team-lifting of late. The Dons can't fall on the ladder for at least three weeks, so will be able to take some risks. Expect red and black jackets to be waving at the end.
Essendon by 15 points
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