How to tip for Round 13
June 19th 2008 10:07
** Disclaimer: apologies to anyone who happened to follow my tips last week!
St Kilda v Fremantle at Telstra Dome
Ross Lyon has officially lost it! Just when a team needed to regroup and dig deep, the Saints have selected three first gamers to take on the Dockers on Friday. Feeling the brunt of the selection axe is the needlessly-maligned Nick Dal Santo, who would rightly feel something of a scapegoat right now. Freo clicked last week, and will be furious at the lack of respect St Kilda are showing them. If the Saints expect to beat the Dockers with three gumshoes on the field, they have another thing coming.
Fremantle by 8 points
Hawthorn v North Melbourne at the MCG
Out goes Bateman, but in comes Guerra for the Hawks, just as important a player. Crucial to the run off half back, Hawthorn will be very happy to have him back on the park. The Kangaroos lose their key ruckman McIntosh, who played very well against the Hawks last time around. The Kangas are an enigma - pushing the Cats all the way, but going down to Fremantle. On that form, you'd expect them to challenge the second-placed Hawks this weekend. However, I make it a rule never to pick a team that has made more than four changes.
Hawthorn by 31 points
Port Adelaide v Richmond at AAMI Stadium
Port were embarrassed last week against the Cats, like a macho man who talks big but runs from a fight. AAMI Stadium is no longer such a happy hunting ground for them, taking just one win from five games there this year. The Tigers won comfortably last week, albeit against the struggling Demons. If their midfield can get on top, they're a chance. The Power, though, will be buoyed by the return of Brett Ebert and have the better defence of the two teams. Expect a respectable loss for the Tigers.
Port Adelaide by 15 points
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide at the Gabba
Brisbane were jumbled by the Dogs last week, just when they looked like potential premiership outsiders. The Crows took three quarters off Hawthorn but lost at the death. This will be match of the round, but no one in Victoria will notice. The Crows recover Burton and Gill to add firepower to their forwardline, while the Lions regain Rischitelli and accomplished tagger Copeland, along with first-gamer Tom Collier. Adelaide have a wonderful defence, and if they can minimise Jonathan Brown's influence, Brisbane will be in trouble. But home ground advantage should see the Lions home, and Simon Black for three votes.
Brisbane Lions by 2 points
West Coast v Geelong at Subiaco Oval
It's not the five inclusions that makes me tip against the Eagles here, because what a group they are! Kerr, Braun, Hansen and Fletcher - realising that they were all out just about excuses the Eagles' poor start to the year. It's just a shame they were recalled against Geelong, because the Cats are in some form right about now. You wouldn't put money against them.
Geelong by 25 points
Melbourne v Sydney Swans at Manuka Oval
Melbourne had their moments last week, but their makeshift forwardline will struggle against the league's tightest defence. Sydney are hitting their best form right about now, moving into the top four and playing some attractive footy. They are making the best of their youngsters and have the consistency over a whole game that the Demons haven't found this year. The game is, interestingly, just about a Sydney home game.
Sydney by 40 points
Carlton v Essendon at the MCG
Top-eight side Carlton play a flat Bombers outfit, who are back on the winners list after a bit of a drought. Expect a big crowd, but don't expect much from the game. Last week aside, the Bombers' forwards have been a bit disappointing and their defence has been leaky at best. The Blues' midfield is humming and, in a Hawthorn-esque way, protecting the weak link that is their defence. Judd keeps getting closer and closer to his best. Remember why he won a Brownlow now?
Carlton by 18 points
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
A season-defining game for the Pies. 8-5 looks so much better than 7-6, and a win would give their push for the top four a lot more credibility. The Dogs, however, are very, very good. With multiple goalkicking options and a midfield that is in great shape, they will be tough to beat. Collingwood desperately need Rocca to be fit if they want to a forward line that would challenge the Bulldogs, whose defence is well structured and gets results. If the Pies underestimate their opponents even slightly, it will come back to bite them. Hard.
Western Bulldogs by 10 points
St Kilda v Fremantle at Telstra Dome
Ross Lyon has officially lost it! Just when a team needed to regroup and dig deep, the Saints have selected three first gamers to take on the Dockers on Friday. Feeling the brunt of the selection axe is the needlessly-maligned Nick Dal Santo, who would rightly feel something of a scapegoat right now. Freo clicked last week, and will be furious at the lack of respect St Kilda are showing them. If the Saints expect to beat the Dockers with three gumshoes on the field, they have another thing coming.
Hawthorn v North Melbourne at the MCG
Out goes Bateman, but in comes Guerra for the Hawks, just as important a player. Crucial to the run off half back, Hawthorn will be very happy to have him back on the park. The Kangaroos lose their key ruckman McIntosh, who played very well against the Hawks last time around. The Kangas are an enigma - pushing the Cats all the way, but going down to Fremantle. On that form, you'd expect them to challenge the second-placed Hawks this weekend. However, I make it a rule never to pick a team that has made more than four changes.
Hawthorn by 31 points
Port Adelaide v Richmond at AAMI Stadium
Port were embarrassed last week against the Cats, like a macho man who talks big but runs from a fight. AAMI Stadium is no longer such a happy hunting ground for them, taking just one win from five games there this year. The Tigers won comfortably last week, albeit against the struggling Demons. If their midfield can get on top, they're a chance. The Power, though, will be buoyed by the return of Brett Ebert and have the better defence of the two teams. Expect a respectable loss for the Tigers.
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide at the Gabba
Brisbane were jumbled by the Dogs last week, just when they looked like potential premiership outsiders. The Crows took three quarters off Hawthorn but lost at the death. This will be match of the round, but no one in Victoria will notice. The Crows recover Burton and Gill to add firepower to their forwardline, while the Lions regain Rischitelli and accomplished tagger Copeland, along with first-gamer Tom Collier. Adelaide have a wonderful defence, and if they can minimise Jonathan Brown's influence, Brisbane will be in trouble. But home ground advantage should see the Lions home, and Simon Black for three votes.
Brisbane Lions by 2 points
West Coast v Geelong at Subiaco Oval
It's not the five inclusions that makes me tip against the Eagles here, because what a group they are! Kerr, Braun, Hansen and Fletcher - realising that they were all out just about excuses the Eagles' poor start to the year. It's just a shame they were recalled against Geelong, because the Cats are in some form right about now. You wouldn't put money against them.
Geelong by 25 points
Melbourne v Sydney Swans at Manuka Oval
Melbourne had their moments last week, but their makeshift forwardline will struggle against the league's tightest defence. Sydney are hitting their best form right about now, moving into the top four and playing some attractive footy. They are making the best of their youngsters and have the consistency over a whole game that the Demons haven't found this year. The game is, interestingly, just about a Sydney home game.
Sydney by 40 points
Carlton v Essendon at the MCG
Top-eight side Carlton play a flat Bombers outfit, who are back on the winners list after a bit of a drought. Expect a big crowd, but don't expect much from the game. Last week aside, the Bombers' forwards have been a bit disappointing and their defence has been leaky at best. The Blues' midfield is humming and, in a Hawthorn-esque way, protecting the weak link that is their defence. Judd keeps getting closer and closer to his best. Remember why he won a Brownlow now?
Carlton by 18 points
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
A season-defining game for the Pies. 8-5 looks so much better than 7-6, and a win would give their push for the top four a lot more credibility. The Dogs, however, are very, very good. With multiple goalkicking options and a midfield that is in great shape, they will be tough to beat. Collingwood desperately need Rocca to be fit if they want to a forward line that would challenge the Bulldogs, whose defence is well structured and gets results. If the Pies underestimate their opponents even slightly, it will come back to bite them. Hard.
Western Bulldogs by 10 points
| 78 |
| Vote |
