How to tip for Round 12
June 13th 2008 05:38
Essendon v West Coast at Telstra Dome
The Bombers have not been convincing over four quarters very often this year. The Eagles are just starting to remember why they made consecutive Grand Finals a few years ago. Strong showings against the Kangaroos and Sydney suggest they should bury a lower opposition such as Essendon. And though the Eagles are second worst in terms of points scored, the Bombers are second worst in points conceded. One of those will improve this week.
West Coast by 15 points
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Two teams in red-hot form. The Dogs continue to pile on the big scores, averaging 123 points per game. The Lions' forward stocks will be tested with the loss of Bradshaw. Simon Black is in Brownlow form, but the Bulldogs have good stoppers and if they can minimise his influence (easier said than done), they have the outer midfielders and forwards to win the game. The Dogs will be buoyed further by the inclusion of Murphy.
Western Bulldogs by nine points
Fremantle v North Melbourne at Subiaco
At 1-10, Freo should hardly be hardly a threat to eighth-placed North Melbourne. The Kangaroos fought brilliantly with limited forward fire-power to challenge the Cats, while the Dockers are yet to win at home all year. The Dockers may have won three quarters last week, but their refusal to win games has been a consistent feature of their play all year. If the Dockers are up at three-quarter time, rush out and put all your money on the Roos.
North Melbourne by 17 points
Sydney Swans v St Kilda at the SCG
St Kilda showed a dangerous inflexibility last week, continually kicking forward with long bombs that didn't once pay off. Sydney's defence is well documented to be tight, and unless the Saints can prove that they have other ways of venturing forward, they will simply get slaughtered. Though they need a win to stay in touch with the eight, they will be unlikely to get it at Sydney's hunting ground. And look out Sam Fisher - Barry Hall is back!
Sydney by 32 points
Adelaide v Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
An intriguing contest! Adelaide are 6-0 at AAMI Stadium this year, while the Hawks are in better form than anyone under 25 can remember. Hawthorn's forwards are elite, but Adelaide's defence is generally as tight a pair of footy shorts, though it is hard to see an individual backman nullifying Franklin these days. The Hawks will need Bateman to play, while the Crows could make the most of their forward options (Jericho, Porplyzia, Tippett, Goodwin) to stretch the Hawk's defence, and McLeod will be Best on Ground. Heads, Hawthorn. Tails, Adelaide.
Hawthorn by two points
Geelong v Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium
A close contest last time in Adelaide, but no one can take points off the Cats in Geelong. Mooney is back in form, Corey and Bartel were their usual damaging selves and Gary Ablett will be upset you can't get more than three votes in a game. Port, on the other hand, lost the unloseable against the Blues, and are on the way out. The Cats will miss Scarlett, badly, and the Power welcome back Shaun Burgoyne, but there is too much class in the Geelong midfield to overcome. We won't see a repeat of last year's Grand Final, but I don't see Port winning. They will win next week, however, just as everyone starts to call their season over!
Geelong by 27 points
Collingwood v Carlton at the MCG
If Carlton's resurgence is to be credible, they must at the very least come close here. As years of high draft picks start coming good, playing the Blues is no longer a guaranteed win. The Pies are 4-1 from their last five (as, incredibly, seven of the top eight are) and have scored the second most points in the league. Both midfields are firing, but I don't think Carlton's defence can keep up with the Didak, Medhurst, Thomas and Davis combination. But teams lift against Collingwood, so expect it to be close.
Collingwood by six points
Richmond v Melbourne at Telstra Dome
Both these teams have been competitive without winning recently, the Tigers scaring the Crows in Adelaide last week while the Demons have pushed the Hawks and the Pies recently. Injuries have forced the Dees to take some risks here, throwing the inexperienced Chris Johnson into ruck rover opposite Deledio. Their defence will not like losing Bell, Rivers and Moloney. But the Tigers have concerns of their own, losing King and Thursfield to hamstring injuries. Ultimately, though, I don't think talent will decide this game - whoever wants the win more will take it.
Melbourne by one point
The Bombers have not been convincing over four quarters very often this year. The Eagles are just starting to remember why they made consecutive Grand Finals a few years ago. Strong showings against the Kangaroos and Sydney suggest they should bury a lower opposition such as Essendon. And though the Eagles are second worst in terms of points scored, the Bombers are second worst in points conceded. One of those will improve this week.
West Coast by 15 points
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Two teams in red-hot form. The Dogs continue to pile on the big scores, averaging 123 points per game. The Lions' forward stocks will be tested with the loss of Bradshaw. Simon Black is in Brownlow form, but the Bulldogs have good stoppers and if they can minimise his influence (easier said than done), they have the outer midfielders and forwards to win the game. The Dogs will be buoyed further by the inclusion of Murphy.
Fremantle v North Melbourne at Subiaco
At 1-10, Freo should hardly be hardly a threat to eighth-placed North Melbourne. The Kangaroos fought brilliantly with limited forward fire-power to challenge the Cats, while the Dockers are yet to win at home all year. The Dockers may have won three quarters last week, but their refusal to win games has been a consistent feature of their play all year. If the Dockers are up at three-quarter time, rush out and put all your money on the Roos.
North Melbourne by 17 points
Sydney Swans v St Kilda at the SCG
St Kilda showed a dangerous inflexibility last week, continually kicking forward with long bombs that didn't once pay off. Sydney's defence is well documented to be tight, and unless the Saints can prove that they have other ways of venturing forward, they will simply get slaughtered. Though they need a win to stay in touch with the eight, they will be unlikely to get it at Sydney's hunting ground. And look out Sam Fisher - Barry Hall is back!
Adelaide v Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
An intriguing contest! Adelaide are 6-0 at AAMI Stadium this year, while the Hawks are in better form than anyone under 25 can remember. Hawthorn's forwards are elite, but Adelaide's defence is generally as tight a pair of footy shorts, though it is hard to see an individual backman nullifying Franklin these days. The Hawks will need Bateman to play, while the Crows could make the most of their forward options (Jericho, Porplyzia, Tippett, Goodwin) to stretch the Hawk's defence, and McLeod will be Best on Ground. Heads, Hawthorn. Tails, Adelaide.
Hawthorn by two points
Geelong v Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium
A close contest last time in Adelaide, but no one can take points off the Cats in Geelong. Mooney is back in form, Corey and Bartel were their usual damaging selves and Gary Ablett will be upset you can't get more than three votes in a game. Port, on the other hand, lost the unloseable against the Blues, and are on the way out. The Cats will miss Scarlett, badly, and the Power welcome back Shaun Burgoyne, but there is too much class in the Geelong midfield to overcome. We won't see a repeat of last year's Grand Final, but I don't see Port winning. They will win next week, however, just as everyone starts to call their season over!
Geelong by 27 points
Collingwood v Carlton at the MCG
If Carlton's resurgence is to be credible, they must at the very least come close here. As years of high draft picks start coming good, playing the Blues is no longer a guaranteed win. The Pies are 4-1 from their last five (as, incredibly, seven of the top eight are) and have scored the second most points in the league. Both midfields are firing, but I don't think Carlton's defence can keep up with the Didak, Medhurst, Thomas and Davis combination. But teams lift against Collingwood, so expect it to be close.
Collingwood by six points
Richmond v Melbourne at Telstra Dome
Both these teams have been competitive without winning recently, the Tigers scaring the Crows in Adelaide last week while the Demons have pushed the Hawks and the Pies recently. Injuries have forced the Dees to take some risks here, throwing the inexperienced Chris Johnson into ruck rover opposite Deledio. Their defence will not like losing Bell, Rivers and Moloney. But the Tigers have concerns of their own, losing King and Thursfield to hamstring injuries. Ultimately, though, I don't think talent will decide this game - whoever wants the win more will take it.
Melbourne by one point
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