How to Tip for Round 11
June 6th 2008 05:21
North Melbourne v Geelong at Telstra Dome
North Melbourne have serious forward issues with Corey Jones and Nathan Thompson both out injured. It is hard to see Drew Petrie and David Hale causing the premiers' defence too much bother. The Kangroos' midfield will need to pitch in with some goals if they want to kick a winning score. Meanwhile, the will also have to stop the red-hot Bartel-Ablett-Corey combination that are in danger of missing some games with leather poisoning. It's just too hard an ask, and the job will rest on too few players.
Geelong by 66 points
Richmond v Adelaide at the MCG
Adelaide also have some goalkicking issues with Burton suspended, but easily cover for that with the inclusion of McGregor, and they still have Gill and Hentschel to come back in. The midfields are almost perfectly matched as the Crows' Goodwin-Thompson-Edwards take on the Tigers' younger Deledio-Foley-Tuck. But Adelaide boast a brilliant backline who work together nicely and have conceded fewer points than all but two teams. If Adelaide have worked on their goalkicking they should get up comfortably.
Adelaide by 23 points
Essendon v Hawthorn at Telstra Dome
This game will be a real test of Hawthorn's character. The last two weeks, they have played from behind against the Demons and then the Bulldogs. In both weeks, they were frustrated that their gameplan couldn't be implemented and failed to channel their aggression properly which resulted in needless free kicks, often off the ball. The Bombers, conversely, have started to gel a bit and make the best of their impressive spine (Fletcher, Ryder, Stanton, Lucas, Lloyd, Hille). Hawthorn swap Sewell for Hodge but still might find their stretched midfield a bit tested last in the game. Bombers for an outsider.
Hawthorn by 15 points
West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans at Subiaco
The game that, just a year and a half ago, would have been decided by less than a kick, is now a considerably safer bet. West Coast have gone dramatically south after reaching the semi finals last year. Sydney have the stingiest defence in the league, and the Eagles have had trouble scoring. The Swans are a very disciplined unit, and when they sense a win they get it, convincingly. They have only won six from ten, but have the best percentage by 6%. I am also a firm believer in tipping against any team that makes more than four changes. The Eagles have made seven.
Sydney by 40 points
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle at the Gabba
There is nothing to suggest Freo can win a game any time soon. There is much to suggest Brisbane are serious contenders for the top four. Brisbane have taken on struggling Carlton and St Kilda and blown them out of the water early. In both cases, they have cruised from there to win by not much more than their quarter-time lead. Expect the same here. Eight goals to two in the first term, and a 40 point win. The good news for Freo is that they won't be ahead at three quarter time to be able to lose that lead! Three votes to Simon Black.
Brisbane Lions by 40 points
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
St Kilda may be 2-3 from their last five games and a far cry from the premiership contenders they were tipped to be, but this is the sort of game they might just win. The Dogs were battered last week, with several players needing injury breaks before half time. They all played on, but will likely be feeling the effects this week. St Kilda were pretty convincing last week, albeit against last-placed Melbourne. The Bulldogs have scored more than any other team in the competition, but their top goalscorer (Aka) has just 22. If the Saints midfield can limit the number of Bulldog goalkickers, they have a chance. Do not be surprised if St Kilda get up.
Western Bulldogs by 2 points
Port Adelaide v Carlton at AAMI Stadium
Despite the disparity in expectations of these two teams, they are equal on the ladder following ten rounds. Expect Port to win this though, they have shown more hardness at the ball, more solidity in defence and more power in ruck than the Blues so far this year. It won't help Carlton that the game is in Adelaide.
Port Adelaide by 33 points
Melbourne v Collingwood at the MCG
Collingwood have won their last two (including one against Geelong) by a combined total of 186 points. Melbourne have won a massive seven quarters all year. Melbourne now have lost their two primary goalkickers for the rest of 2008. Collingwood welcome Rocca back. Melbourne have taken care of their clash jumper. The Magpies have taken care of their percentage. Enough said?
Collingwood by 70 points
North Melbourne have serious forward issues with Corey Jones and Nathan Thompson both out injured. It is hard to see Drew Petrie and David Hale causing the premiers' defence too much bother. The Kangroos' midfield will need to pitch in with some goals if they want to kick a winning score. Meanwhile, the will also have to stop the red-hot Bartel-Ablett-Corey combination that are in danger of missing some games with leather poisoning. It's just too hard an ask, and the job will rest on too few players.
Geelong by 66 points
Adelaide also have some goalkicking issues with Burton suspended, but easily cover for that with the inclusion of McGregor, and they still have Gill and Hentschel to come back in. The midfields are almost perfectly matched as the Crows' Goodwin-Thompson-Edwards take on the Tigers' younger Deledio-Foley-Tuck. But Adelaide boast a brilliant backline who work together nicely and have conceded fewer points than all but two teams. If Adelaide have worked on their goalkicking they should get up comfortably.
Adelaide by 23 points
Essendon v Hawthorn at Telstra Dome
This game will be a real test of Hawthorn's character. The last two weeks, they have played from behind against the Demons and then the Bulldogs. In both weeks, they were frustrated that their gameplan couldn't be implemented and failed to channel their aggression properly which resulted in needless free kicks, often off the ball. The Bombers, conversely, have started to gel a bit and make the best of their impressive spine (Fletcher, Ryder, Stanton, Lucas, Lloyd, Hille). Hawthorn swap Sewell for Hodge but still might find their stretched midfield a bit tested last in the game. Bombers for an outsider.
West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans at Subiaco
The game that, just a year and a half ago, would have been decided by less than a kick, is now a considerably safer bet. West Coast have gone dramatically south after reaching the semi finals last year. Sydney have the stingiest defence in the league, and the Eagles have had trouble scoring. The Swans are a very disciplined unit, and when they sense a win they get it, convincingly. They have only won six from ten, but have the best percentage by 6%. I am also a firm believer in tipping against any team that makes more than four changes. The Eagles have made seven.
Sydney by 40 points
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle at the Gabba
There is nothing to suggest Freo can win a game any time soon. There is much to suggest Brisbane are serious contenders for the top four. Brisbane have taken on struggling Carlton and St Kilda and blown them out of the water early. In both cases, they have cruised from there to win by not much more than their quarter-time lead. Expect the same here. Eight goals to two in the first term, and a 40 point win. The good news for Freo is that they won't be ahead at three quarter time to be able to lose that lead! Three votes to Simon Black.
Brisbane Lions by 40 points
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs at Telstra Dome
St Kilda may be 2-3 from their last five games and a far cry from the premiership contenders they were tipped to be, but this is the sort of game they might just win. The Dogs were battered last week, with several players needing injury breaks before half time. They all played on, but will likely be feeling the effects this week. St Kilda were pretty convincing last week, albeit against last-placed Melbourne. The Bulldogs have scored more than any other team in the competition, but their top goalscorer (Aka) has just 22. If the Saints midfield can limit the number of Bulldog goalkickers, they have a chance. Do not be surprised if St Kilda get up.
Western Bulldogs by 2 points
Port Adelaide v Carlton at AAMI Stadium
Despite the disparity in expectations of these two teams, they are equal on the ladder following ten rounds. Expect Port to win this though, they have shown more hardness at the ball, more solidity in defence and more power in ruck than the Blues so far this year. It won't help Carlton that the game is in Adelaide.
Port Adelaide by 33 points
Melbourne v Collingwood at the MCG
Collingwood have won their last two (including one against Geelong) by a combined total of 186 points. Melbourne have won a massive seven quarters all year. Melbourne now have lost their two primary goalkickers for the rest of 2008. Collingwood welcome Rocca back. Melbourne have taken care of their clash jumper. The Magpies have taken care of their percentage. Enough said?
Collingwood by 70 points
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